HAAR

NAR says to expect 6% average for 2024 as mortgage rates decrease

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to decrease this week, with the current average at time of printing down from 7.61% to 7.41%. 

As a result, demand for mortgages have begun creeping back upwards, with applications nationwide up 2% over the week. However, this still represents a 20% decrease from the same time last year. 

Speaking to CNBC, National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun described current market conditions as “strange,” due to low sales yet rising prices. He attributed this condition to a lack of supply, caused by a combination of decades of under-production relative to population growth by construction companies prior to Covid, as well as potential sellers remaining in place due to the favorable mortgage rates they attained in the past. 

According to the National Association of Builders, the high mortgage rates have driven up the rates for builder development and construction loans, which has only exacerbated the supply issue at the base of the housing affordability problem.

fleming web banner

Citing the four-week decline in mortgage rates as evidence that the mortgage market has “pivoted,” even if the Federal Reserve has not, Yun predicted an average mortgage rate of around 6% for 2024. 

Here in Huntsville, the October Monthly Report by the Huntsville Area Association of Realtors (HAAR) shows a similar pattern of rising prices and slowing sales. The median sales price of a single-family home rose 1.1%, to $308,800, while the average days on market increased 50%, to 33 days on average. 

In October, 519 homes were sold in Huntsville/Madison County, down from 630 the year previous. 

Nationwide, housing sales were 14.6% lower than October of 2022, marking a 13-year low in the market, even as prices continued to climb. 

The Huntsville Business Journal will continue to monitor and report on developments in the real estate market as they occur.